Playoff odds
10,000 simulated seasons run in your browser. Every remaining game is played out using a log5 matchup model with home-field advantage, where each team's strength blends its actual record with its run-differential (Pythagorean) expectation, then regresses toward .500.
ChartsProjected wins · required pace
Projected final wins
Required pace from here
Next 10 days
Today is open; the rest are folded away. The figure is the swing in Toronto's playoff odds, in percentage points, between the two possible results. Games where two rivals play each other are marked — someone has to win those.
The race
Every American League team still mathematically in the Wild Card picture. Leverage is the swing in Toronto's playoff odds between that team winning and losing their next game — the honest answer to "how much does this team matter to us?"
Wild Card standingsLoading…
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Season pulse
Season pulseRun differential, form, race history, splits
Wild Card race over time
Games behind the third Wild Card spot, reconstructed from every result this season. Below the red line is a playoff position.
Run differential
Cumulative run differential. The slope matters more than the level — it shows when the team actually changed.
Rolling 10-game form
Winning percentage over a trailing 10-game window.
Splits
Blue Jays roster
Active roster26 players · season lines and recent form
Hot and cold compare recent production to that player's own season baseline, so it flags who's actually changed rather than who's simply good.
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Who to worry about
Opponent watchlistNext three opponents
The bats that do the most damage on each upcoming opponent, plus announced starters where MLB has published them.